Evaluation of Emergency Disposal Schemes Based on Cloud Model and Fuzzy Aggregation
SU Zhao-Pin1, ZHANG Ting1, ZHANG Guo-Fu1, YOU Xiao-Quan2, JIANG Jian-Guo1
1School of Computer and Information, Hefei University of Technology, Heifei 230009 2Communication Engineering Department, Chengdu Technological University, Chengdu 610031
The evaluation of emergency disposal schemes is a key topic in disaster emergency response. However, most existing methods only depend on the commander's personal knowledge and experience, which cannot thoroughly consider suggestions of experts in different fields. To tackle such situation, cloud model and fuzzy soft sets are introduced to evaluate emergency disposal schemes. Firstly, cloud model is used to transform qualitative variables into quantitative variables for evaluation information given by experts in different fields. In addition, fuzzy soft sets are adopted to aggregate all quantitative evaluation information to achieve comprehensive evaluation. Finally, the experimental results show that the proposed method is feasible and can provide a theoretical and technical guidance for practical emergency decision making.
苏兆品,张婷,张国富,尤小泉,蒋建国. 基于云模型和模糊聚合的应急方案评估*[J]. 模式识别与人工智能, 2014, 27(11): 1047-1056.
SU Zhao-Pin, ZHANG Ting, ZHANG Guo-Fu, YOU Xiao-Quan, JIANG Jian-Guo. Evaluation of Emergency Disposal Schemes Based on Cloud Model and Fuzzy Aggregation. , 2014, 27(11): 1047-1056.
[1] Simonoff J S, Restrepo C E, Zimmerman R, et al. Resource Allocation, Emergency Response Capability, and Infrastructure Concentration around Vulnerable Sites. Journal of Risk Research, 2011, 14(5): 597-613 [2] Arora H, Raghu T S, Vinze A. Resource Allocation for Demand Surge Mitigation During Disaster Response. Decision Support Systems, 2010, 50(1): 304-315 [3] Pan Y, Yu J, Da Q L. Emergency Resources Scheduling on Continuous Consumption System Based on Particle Swarm Optimization. Journal of System Engineering, 2007, 22(5): 556-560 (in Chinese) (潘 郁,余 佳,达庆利.基于粒子群算法的连续性消耗应急资源调度.系统工程学报, 2007, 22(5): 556-560) [4] Fang L, He J M. Optimal Location Model and Algorithm of Emergency Systems. Journal of System Engineering, 2003, 18(1): 49-54 (in Chinese) (方 磊,何建敏.应急系统优化选址的模型及其算法.系统工程学报, 2003, 18(1): 49-54) [5] Fan Z P, Liu Y, Shen R J. Risk Decision Analysis Method for Emergency Response Based on Prospect Theory. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2012, 32(5): 977-984 (in Chinese) (樊治平,刘 洋,沈荣鉴.基于前景理论的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法.系统工程理论与实践, 2012, 32(5): 977-984) [6] Wu W S, Kou G, Peng Y, et al. A Fuzzy Multi-criteria Emergency Decision-Making Method. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2012, 32(6): 1298-1304 (in Chinese) (邬文帅,寇 纲,彭 怡,等.面向突发事件的模糊多目标应急决策方法.系统工程理论与实践, 2012, 32(6): 1298-1304) [7] Luo J F, Xu K L. Grey Situation Decision Making in Program Optimization of Emergency Decision Making Command. China Public Security: Academy Edition, 2010, (2): 69-71 (in Chinese) (罗景峰,许开立.应急决策指挥方案优选的灰局势决策.中国公共安全:学术版, 2010, (2): 69-71) [8] Hong H, Shang K D, Zhang X K, et al. Optimization of Public Emergency Disposal Schemes Based on the Evaluation and Decision Model of Information Entropy. China Safety Science Journal, 2009, 19(2): 160-164 (in Chinese) (洪 航,商靠定,张学魁,等.基于信息熵评价决策模型的突发公共事件应急处置指挥方案优选.中国安全科学学报, 2009, 19(2): 160-164) [9] Xin J. Proposal Optimization in Nuclear Accident Emergency Decision Based on IAHP. Radiation Protection, 2007, 27(5): 282-285 (in Chinese) (辛 晶.基于区间层次分析法的核事故应急决策方案优选.辐射防护, 2007, 27(5): 282-285) [10] Chen K. Application of Interval Multiple Attribute Decision-Making Method to Optimal Selection of Contingency Procedure Schemes for Single-Engine Failure of Aircraft. China Safety Science Journal, 2010, 20(5): 35-38 (in Chinese) (陈 肯.区间数多属性决策在飞机一发失效应急程序方案优选中的应用.中国安全科学学报, 2010, 20(5): 35-38) [11] Sun H C, Xu G Y, Tian P. Design Alternatives Evaluation of Emergency Bridge by Applying Analytic Network Process (ANP). Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2007, 27(3): 63-70 (in Chinese) (孙宏才,徐关尧,田 平.用网络层次分析法(ANP)评估应急桥梁设计方案.系统工程理论与实践, 2007, 27(3): 63-70) [12] Wang B, Liu L, He J, et al. The Initial Stage of the Evaluation System on Contingency to Natural-Disaster Emergency. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China: Social Sciences Edition, 2011, 13(3): 29-31,51 (in Chinese) (王 博,刘 樑,何 婧,等.自然灾害类非常规突发事件应急方案效果评估指标体系初建.电子科技大学学报:社科版, 2011, 13(3): 29-31,51) [13] Yang K, Xu Q L, Peng S Y, et al. The Design and Implementa-tion of Urban Earthquake Disaster Loss Evaluation and Emergency Response Decision Support Systems Based on ArcGIS // Proc of the IEEE International Conference on Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium. Denver, USA, 2006: 892-895 [14] Chen A, Vale Z, Wang H J, et al. Research on Evaluation System of Emergency Disposal Plan for Power Plant Incidents // Proc of the 5th International Conference on Critical Infrastructure. Beijing, China, 2010: 1-5 [15] Haghighi P D, Burstein F, Zaslavsky A, et al. Development and Evaluation of Ontology for Intelligent Decision Support in Medical Emergency Management for Mass Gatherings. Decision Support Systems, 2013, 54(2): 1192-1204 [16] Ju Y B, Wang A H. Emergency Alternative Evaluation under Group Decision Makers: A Method of Incorporating DS/AHP with Extended TOPSIS. Expert Systems with Applications, 2012, 39(1): 1315-1323 [17] Araz O M, Jehn M. Improving Public Health Emergency Preparedness through Enhanced Decision-Making Environments: A Simulation and Survey Based Evaluation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013, 80(9): 1775-1781 [18] Zhang G Q, Ma J, Lu J. Emergency Management Evaluation by a Fuzzy Multi-criteria Group Decision Support System. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2009, 23(4): 517-527 [19] Li D Y, Liu C Y. Study on the Universality of the Normal Cloud Model. Engineering Science, 2004, 6(8): 28-34 (in Chinese) (李德毅,刘常昱.论正态云模型的普适性.中国工程科学, 2004, 6(8): 28-34) [20] Li D Y, Liu C Y, Du Y, et al. Artificial Intelligence with Un-certainty. Journal of Software, 2004, 15(11): 1583-1594 (in Chinese) (李德毅,刘常昱,杜 鹢,等.不确定性人工智能.软件学报, 2004, 15(11): 1583-1594) [21] Li D Y. Uncertainty in Knowledge Representation. Engineering Science, 2000, 2(10): 73-79 (in Chinese) (李德毅.知识表示中的不确定性.中国工程科学, 2000, 2(10): 73-79) [22] Di K C, Li D Y, Li D R. Cloud Theory and Its Applications in Spatial Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery. Journal of Image and Graphics, 1999, 4(A)(11): 930-935 (in Chinese) (邸凯昌,李德仁,李德毅.云理论及其在空间数据发掘和知识发现中的应用.中国图象图形学报, 1999, 4(A版)(11): 930-935) [23] Wang H L, Feng Y Q. On Multiple Attribute Group Decision Making with Linguistic Assessment Information Based on Cloud Model. Control and Decision, 2005, 20(6): 679-681,685 (in Chinese) (王洪利,冯玉强.基于云模型具有语言评价信息的多属性群决策研究.控制与决策, 2005, 20(6): 679-681,685) [24] Wang S X, Zhang L, Li H S. Evaluation Approach of Subjective Trust Based on Cloud Model. Journal of Software, 2010, 21(6): 1341-1352 (in Chinese) (王守信,张 莉,李鹤松.一种基于云模型的主观信任评价方法.软件学报, 2010, 21(6): 1341-1352) [25] Tian J B, Jiang J G, Zhang G F, et al. Evaluation of Agent Coalition Based on Cloud Model. Control and Decision, 2013, 28(1): 152-156 (in Chinese) (田敬北,蒋建国,张国富,等.基于云模型的Agent联盟评价.控制与决策, 2013, 28(1): 152-156) [26] Du X Y, Yin Q J, Huang K D, et al. Transformation between Qualitative Variables and Quantity Based on Cloud Models and Its application. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2008, 30(4): 772-776 (in Chinese) (杜湘瑜,尹全军,黄柯棣,等.基于云模型的定性定量转换方法及其应用.系统工程与电子技术, 2008, 30(4): 772-776) [27] Zhou J, Zhu Y Q, Chai X D, et al. Approach for Analyzing Consensus Based on Cloud Model and Evidence Theory. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2012, 32(12): 2756-2763 (in Chinese) (周 剑,朱耀琴,柴旭东,等.基于云模型与证据理论的共识分析方法.系统工程理论与实践, 2012, 32(12): 2756-2763) [28] Li H L, Guo C H. Piecewise Aggregate Approximation Method Based on Cloud Model for Time Series. Control and Decision, 2010, 26(10): 1525-1529 (in Chinese) (李海林,郭崇慧.基于云模型的时间序列分段聚合近似方法.控制与决策, 2010, 26(10): 1525-1529) [29] Maji P K, Biswas R, Roy A R. Fuzzy Soft Sets. The Journal of Fuzzy Mathematics, 2001, 9(3): 589-602 [30] Molodtsov D. Soft Set Theory-First Results. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 1999, 37(4/5): 19-31 [31] Yang Y, Tan X, Meng C C. The Multi-fuzzy Soft Set and Its Application in Decision Making. Applied Mathematical Modeling, 2013, 37(7): 4915-4923