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  2018, Vol. 31 Issue (9): 845-855    DOI: 10.16451/j.cnki.issn1003-6059.201809007
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Prediction Method of String Invariants of Short-Term Passenger Flow of Bus
DONG Hongzhao1, LIU Qian1, FU Fengjie1
1. ITS Joint Research Institute, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310006

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Abstract  

The prediction of short-term bus passenger flow is the basis of the dynamic scheduling of the intelligent bus system. Therefore, according to the data characteristics of short-term passenger flow of bus, a short-term bus passenger flow prediction method based on string theory is proposed. A string invariants passenger flow prediction model(SI-PFPM) is constructed by simulating the string structure and the genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize the parameters of SI-PFPM. An AP clustering algorithm (DTW-AP) based on dynamic time warping(DTW) distance is proposed to perform clustering analysis on the passenger flow time series of short-time buses. SI-PFPM is employed to predict the short-term passenger flow data, and the predicted residual error is analyzed. The result shows that SI-PFPM is effective for the prediction of short-term bus passenger flow. Finally, the prediction performance of SI-PFPM is compared with the existing methods, and the effectiveness of SI-PFPM in short-term bus passenger flow prediction is verified.

Key wordsString Theory      String Invariants      Prediction of Short-Term Passenger Flow of Bus      Genetic Algorithm      Clustering of Temporal Sequences     
Received: 19 December 2017     
ZTFLH: U 492.4+13  
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DONG Hongzhao
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DONG Hongzhao,LIU Qian,FU Fengjie. Prediction Method of String Invariants of Short-Term Passenger Flow of Bus[J]. , 2018, 31(9): 845-855.
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http://manu46.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_prai/EN/10.16451/j.cnki.issn1003-6059.201809007      OR     http://manu46.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_prai/EN/Y2018/V31/I9/845
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