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| Trend Prediction for Microblog Based on Classification Modeling of Heat Curves |
| LIU Ye-Zheng, DU Ya-Nan, JIANG Yuan-Chun, DU Fei |
| School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009 |
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Abstract Timely acquiring of hot topics is of great significance for commercial innovation and business marketing. Existing methods mostly need to cope with non-structured data or repeated traversal sample set, which results in high complexity. In this paper, emphasizing the topic statistical properties, a non-parameter method based on structured data is proposed to acquire the hot topics in time. Firstly, diffusion degree and focus degree are introduced to build heat curves to characterize the topics. Then, the varied heat curves are classified to determine the common behaviors of the topics. Finally, the weighted-vote scheme is employed to predict whether a topic is trend or not. The experimental results on Sina microblog show that the proposed method has simple data structure and works well with low time complexity and simple manipulation.
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Received: 10 March 2014
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2015, Vol. 28 
